Why Shin Lim’s Victory in S13 Was the Hardest In AGT History

The Idea that Changed Everything

It’s the Fall of 2012. The Olate Dogs have just been crowned the 7th winner of America’s Got Talent. Americans are about to re-elect President Barack Obama to his second term. The iPhone 5 has just hit the shelves, and you can still get a McDouble or a McChicken for a buck plus tax. About 5,000 miles across the frigid Atlantic, the German people are flipping on their Der Fernsehers and settling in for the 6th season of Das Supertalent. Why is Season 6 of Das Supertalent important to this article about Shin Lim winning Season 13 of AGT? Because.

Season 6 of Das Supertalent saw Simon Cowell beta testing his new big idea for the Got Talent franchise: The Golden Buzzer. A classic strategy. Think of a new idea, have a small market try it, see if it works, and then roll it out worldwide if it does. If he was Mark Zuckerberg in February of 2004, Das Supertalent was his Harvard, and the rest of the Got Talent’s were everyone else. So there we were, on the Das Supertalent stage, as AGT Season 5 alum and magician Dan Sperry made his case to the German judges. What happened next changed the Got Talent franchise forever: the first ever Golden Buzzer (what a piece of trivia that is, shoutout Dan Sperry). 

Fast forward 18 months to the spring of 2014. Simon is finally ready to roll out this Golden Buzzer idea worldwide, and no place is more important than where they taped auditions for America’s Got Talent, (at that time) New York City. Season 9 auditions were underway and the first AGT Golden Buzzers were getting pressed. The honor of the first went to the great Howard Stern. After both Heidi and Mel B said no, he pressed his Golden Buzzer for Dustin’s Dojo. And thus, the Golden Buzzer era on AGT had begun. If you were watching, you might remember that Season 9 was a beta test in and of itself. The show didn’t seem totally sold on the idea yet. They didn’t even televise Heidi or Mel’s presses. We know Heidi pressed for an act that split up before Judgement Week and the one guy performed solo, nullifying the Golden Buzzer. We, to this day, do not know who Mel B’s first Golden Buzzer was. So, yeah, let’s just say the Golden Buzzer had some humble beginnings on AGT. 

Those humble beginnings wouldn’t last long. Soon, the Golden Buzzer was turning into AGT’s most recognizable characteristic to the general public. “Isn’t that the show where they press that gold button and then confetti goes everywhere?”. That would be an example of a lay person talking about AGT. The Golden Buzzer would expand to the second round of auditions in Season 10. It would expand to the host in Season 11. It would expand to the group of judges and host in Season 16. It would expand to the audience in Season 18. It would expand to two presses per judge in Season 19 Auditions and a press for each judge in Live Shows in the Season 19 Quarterfinals. Just like when the NBA added 6 franchises in 7 years from 1988-1994 and ushered in the most uncompetitive era in the history of the league that old players love to say was so great even though there weren't enough good players to field 20 competitive teams let alone 29 (sorry for the NBA rant but there’s a reason Michael Jordan won 6 titles in the 90s beyond his individual greatness), things have started to get a little watered down. 

There’s a Winning Formula

As far back as the Babylonians in 1800 B.C., we’ve been using formulas. AGT during the Golden Buzzer era is not immune to this. I think I’ve boiled down a pretty clear one: 

Golden Buzzer + Golden Buzzer Going Viral + No Instant Saves in the Live Shows = Victory

It’s not 100%. Sorry I’m not the scientific mind that Pythagoras was. But it’s darn close enough to 100% to be taken seriously if you ask me. Sure, Viral is a somewhat ambiguous data set. But like how the United States Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart defined adult films (there's a word that starts with P that I’m omitting and replacing with ‘adult films’) in 1964: “I know it when I see it”.  So, that’s how I define viral. I know it when I see it. 

The Instant Saves are the only real voting data that AGT has ever revealed to us. They were kind enough to give us that context clue. If you were in a Save in the Quarters or Semis, that meant you couldn’t crack the top 3-5 vote getters that night. Pretty good indicator that you can’t get the MOST votes on Finale night.

Now that we know the history of the Golden Buzzer, and now that we’ve identified the formula, will you please, AGTCommenter, for the love of all that is good, tell us why Shin Lim’s victory in Season 13 was the hardest in AGT history!? Sure.

In order to do that, I need to lay out some data:

Season 10: Winner Paul Zerdin, Judge Cuts Golden Buzzer, somewhat viral, no Dunkin’ Save in live shows

Season 11: Winner Grace VanderWaal, Golden Buzzer, mega viral, no Dunkin’ Save in live shows, the epitome of the formula at work

Season 12: Winner Darci Lynne, Golden Buzzer, mega viral, no Dunkin’ Save, the epitome of the formula at work

Season 13: Winner Shin Lim, no Golden Buzzer, not viral, no Dunkin’ Save, the opposite of the formula at work

Season 14: Winner Kodi Lee, Golden Buzzer, mega uber viral, no Dunkin’ Save, epitome of the formula at work

Season 15: Winner Brandon Leake, Golden Buzzer, viral, no Dunkin’ Save

Season 16: Winner Dustin Tavella, no Golden Buzzer, not viral, no Instant Save, the opposite of the formula at work

Season 16 was the final season of the Save. So that’s where I want my data to center on. Seasons 10-16. In those 7 seasons, 5 winners received a Golden Buzzer. 4 of those were audition Golden Buzzers. All 4 of those were viral performances. And, since no one has ever won the show having been in a Save, all 7 winners were straight through on results night all season long. 

Prepare the Cabin for Touch Down

Time for me to land this plane. Season 13 and Season 16 are the only two seasons in this era that had non-Golden Buzzer winners. Impressive, considering in the 11 years with the Golden Buzzer, 8 of the 11 winners received one. My thesis here is that winning without the Golden Buzzer in the Golden Buzzer era is hard, really hard. But just how hard was it for Shin Lim and Dustin Tavella? I think that answer lies with who they beat. 

Season 16 Audition Golden Buzzers: nightbirde (withdrew), Victory Brinker (Instant Save in Semifinals), Northwell Nurse Choir (no Instant Save but not particularly viral), World Taekwondo (Instant Save), Jimmie Herrod (Instant Save), & Lea Kyle (Instant Save)

Season 16 saw 5 audition Golden Buzzers in the Finals. Of those 5, 4 were in a Semifinal Instant Save. The 5th, the Nurse Choir, I would not describe as viral. So, Tavella’s stiffest Golden Buzzer Formula competition was the Nurse Choir. Not exactly a gauntlet.

Season 13 Audition Golden Buzzers: Courtney Hadwin (mega uber viral, no Dunkin’ Saves), Amanda Mena (eliminated before Finals), Zurcaroh (viral, no Dunkin’ Saves), Makayla Phillips (eliminated before Finals), Michael Ketterer (viral, no Dunkin’ Saves)

Season 13 saw 3 audition Golden Buzzers make the Finals. All 3 were viral, maybe even mega uber viral, and were never in a Dunkin’ Save. All 3, Michael Ketterer, Courtney Hadwin, and Zurcaroh, fit the formula to the letter. They were exactly the acts that won the show in this era. Every time, one of those 3 names wins. Except when Shin Lim is on the season. That competition is by far the most difficult field on a Finals night that we’ve ever seen. I say this because we didn’t have the voting data context clues in some of the earlier seasons or in the last 4 seasons. We don’t have Golden Buzzers in the earlier seasons as an indicator of winning likelihood like we do now. This 7 year stretch of the show was the most intel we ever had to know who was in real contention to win the show. And Season 13 was the only time in those 7 years that the formula returned a result of “ERROR”.