The Anatomy of a Final

It’s Important to Know What Game You’re Actually Playing

Ray Kroc met Dick & Mac McDonald in 1954. He sold them some multi-mixers for their revolutionary restaurant in San Bernardino, CA. Over the next 7 years, Kroc slowly took control of the company from the brothers, ultimately buying them out in 1961. Over that time, Kroc began popping up franchises all over the country. Yet he found himself barely breaking even, while the restaurants themselves were a cash cow. How could that be possible? Because Kroc thought he was in the burger business, when he actually was in the real estate business. He switched his business model, starting buying land and then leasing it to franchisees to build their McDonald’s. As of today, McDonald’s is the 5th largest landlord on Earth. 

The Game Theory of AGT

Game Theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions. There’s all sorts of concepts in game theory. Zero sum or non-zero sum. Cooperative or non-cooperative. Symmetric or non-symmmetric. I would like to add one that is specific to AGT:

Singing or Non-Singing

I was thinking back on the Season 13 Rewatch that Cody and I did this spring. There were three dance crews on that season that performed well: Junior New System, Da Republik, and The Future Kingz. As early as the auditions, I was talking on the pod about how they were in a little side competition to see who will be the best dance crew that season. As we went along in the Rewatch, I kept asking that question. Who is the best dance crew? It was like those three were in a battle in my head. But, ultimately this isn’t a dance contest. It’s not a magic contest. It’s not a singing contest. It’s a talent contest. So why, then, was I so hellbent on pitting these three against each other instead of against the competition writ large? Because they WERE in a competition against each other. Because this WAS a dance contest, a magic contest, a comedy contest, and so on and so forth. At least that’s what the history of the show tells us.

The Anatomy of a Final

There have been 20 Finals episodes in AGT history. All of them are made up of a variety of talent categories. Singing, magic, comedy, dancing, ventriloquism, regurgitating. Any number of random skills. But, even with all that variety at our disposal, when I started to dig a little deeper, it turns out they all (for the most part) follow a very similar blueprint. 

I did what I do best, I ran some numbers. Bear with me, I will try to make this as simple as I can. 

There have been 167 finalists in AGT history. Of those 167, 78 have been singing acts (I classified singing acts as singers, choirs, rappers, singing groups, bands. SINGING VENTRILOQUISTS NOT INCLUDED). The other 89 are some type of variety act. That means 47% of finalists have been singing acts and 53% non-singing acts (Game Theory!). You have about the exact same odds to land on heads or tails if you flipped a coin 350,757 times (some lab actually did a study flipping it that many times) as you do to have a singer and a non-singer in the Finals of AGT. 

Let’s break it down a little more for you data nerds:

Shoutout Season 7. No singing acts in the Finals! Of the twenty seasons, only three would I classify as non-singing heavy. Seasons 7, 10, and 19. If you dump those three seasons, there’s more singing finalists than non-singing finalists in the remaining 17 seasons. 

I then went further. What about the Golden Buzzer era (Seasons 10-20)? In those eleven seasons, 42% of the 112 finalists received an Audition or Judge Cuts Golden Buzzer. 47 Auditions/Judge Cuts Golden Buzzers have made the Finals in 11 years. Over four per season. That’s astounding. Moreover, in those 11 years, 73% of the winners received an Audition/Judge Cuts Golden Buzzer (8/11). 

The Anatomy of a Final on AGT looks something like this:

Half singers, half non-singers. Half Golden Buzzers, half non-Golden Buzzers (I’m not including Live Show Golden Buzzers). Winner: Golden Buzzer

The Game You’re Actually Playing

Ray Kroc thought he was in the burger business. Every act that walks on the AGT stage thinks they are in a talent contest. For the singing acts, that’s true. They are in a talent contest. For non-singing acts, that’s not true. They are not in a talent contest. At least not until the Finals. 

In 20 seasons, only three variety talent categories have sent more than one act to the Finals in the same season (highlighted in blue below). Only three! Magic, Dance, and Comedy.

Less than half the seasons have featured multiple acts from the same variety category in the Finals. Never more than two categories in one season have sent multiple to the Finals. Never more than three acts in one category in one season in the Finals. 

This data set tells us everything we need to know about what game these acts are actually playing. If you’re a comedian, you are in a comedy contest. Because if you aren’t the best comedian on the season, 17 out of 20 times you don’t make the finals. If you are not the best magician, 17 out of 20 times you don’t make the Finals. You can be the 4th best singer on a season and make the finals. If you ARE the best comedian, still 40% of the time you don’t make the Finals. If you ARE the best magician, still 45% of the time you don’t make the Finals. If you are the best singer, 45% of the time you WIN THE SHOW. That’s the game we are playing.